XPost: alt.ufo.reports

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
- There's a vague connection in the folklore between UFO's and big holes
in the ground.
- We look at the correlation between UFO sightings and Florida's
sinkholes.
- For "all" (mostly N Am based) UFO sightings there is a strong corr
that finds more UFO sightings in a year is related to less sinkholes
per month in Fla.
- But for Florida UFO sightings there is an even stronger corr but
it's positive -- for more Florida sightings there are expected to be
more sinkholes/mo in Fla in the same year.
- We wonder if there is a similar link in the UK where huge sinkholes --
ostensibly linked with the extensive unmapped mines left over from
centuries of digging up minerals -- are a growing feature of the
urban landscape.


Siberia's Newest Exploding Crater Has Been Mapped in 3D
Gizmodo, 17 Feb 2021 18:23Z
For the first time ever, geologists have used a drone to map the
interior of a giant blowout crater, the likes of which have appeared
with increasing regularity in ...


A few months ago when I started digging into the UFO data one of the
first factoids that got tossed up was an unusual similarity between
the weather in Siberia and UFO activity. It seemed as the cloud cover
change in a certain chunk of coastal NE Russia UFO sightings went up
and down in parallel.

Well. It could be a coincidence.

I fed the rough coordinates of the region in question into google --
everyone was using google back then -- and up popped a story about
someone seeing a diamond ufo coming and going from a huge mysterious
hole that got blown into the tundra in the same region.

Well. It could be a coincidence.

Another item concerned a group of Russian students that visited an
island off the coast and "saw something". Sounded pretty unusual.

Well. It could be a coincidence. Ask any member of the intel
community. They are always finding coincidences and it's nothing
unusual at all.

And today in my inbox is another story about big mysterious holes in
the ground. But this time it's in Florida.

Seems the AIs have been scrounging around the internet and found a
sinkhole database created by a group at USF <http://fcit.usf.edu/Florida/maps/galleries/sinkholes/>.

And the first thing they do these days is see whether it correlates
against UFO activity. And. Bingo! Another coincidence!

Here's the average monthly sinkhole count they extracted from the URL.

Year Av new sinkholes/mo
1909 10.6667
1948 1
1950 1
1954 1
1955 1
1956 4
1957 1
1958 1
1959 1.5
1960 1
1961 4
1962 4
1963 1
1964 2.2
1965 2
1966 1.5
1967 1.85714
1968 1.25
1969 1.57143
1970 4.2
1971 1.875
1972 2.3
1973 4.5
1974 5.7
1975 2.8
1976 2.1
1977 4.5
1978 2.9
1979 3.16667
1980 2.55556
1981 11.75
1982 9
1983 8.5
1984 5.58333
1985 12.5833
1986 9.91667
1987 10.1667
1988 13.6667
1989 11.25
1990 8.33333
1991 6.8
1992 1.6
1993 1.8
1994 3.5
1995 4.90909
1996 4.27273
1997 3.45455
1998 5.90909
1999 4.91667
2000 9.33333
2001 8.58333
2002 9.91667
2003 7.91667
2004 3.45455
2005 2.63636
2006 3.2
2007 1.5

Luckily this spans the "pre internet report form" part of the NUFORC
data so there is no numerical problem with suddenly changing from a
low number of sightings reported per month and 10x sightings reported
per month.

So the time series regression of NUFORC sightings and the sinkhole
numbers, above, is as follows:

y = -0.00846662*x + 4.79309
beta in -0.00846662 +- 0.00473496 95% CI
alpha in 4.79309 +- 0.861821
P(beta<0.000000) = 0.999021
calculated Spearman corr = -0.732143
Critical Spearman = 0.623000 2-sided at 1%; reject H0:not_connected
r2 = 0.53442685
(No serial corr detected).

Binned data:

Bin label av #sightings av #sinkholes model-est #sinkholes
2003 18.1115 6.02576 4.63975*(-1sd under obs)
1961 30.9909 4 4.5307
2005 42.02 3.31818 4.43732*(+1sd)
1984 67.3683 5.58333 4.22271*(-1sd)
1970 74.6733 4.2 4.16086
1981 84.2165 5.10714 4.08006*(-1)
1983 90.2032 4.1 4.02937
1980 100.72 2.20635 3.94033*(+1)
1979 118.503 3.37222 3.78977
1977 127.432 4.5 3.71417
1976 144.403 2.45 3.57048*(+1)
1978 159.898 2.9 3.43929
2006 282.75 3.2 2.39915
2007 388.417 1.5 1.50451
2007 388.417 1.5 1.50451

The s/w finds the year-to-year distribution of UFO sightings has an
uncanny similarity to the year-to-year distribution of Florida
sinkholes. The average number of sinkholes is around 4.8 but every 100
UFO sightings in the NUFORC database corresponds with a reduction of
around .85 sinkholes/mo. More UFO sightings less sinkholes, less UFO
sightings more sinkholes. The s/w is twice 99% sure there is a
connection. The T-test on the \beta finds it is too negative to be due
to chance. And the Rank test finds the order of years by UFO
sightings is almost exactly the reverse of the order by sinkhole
numbers. The R2 shows that about 53% of the year-to-year distribution
of new sinkholes matches the same wobbles in the year-to-year
distribution of UFO sightings.

So there's a prima facie connection. But it's hard to interpret why
more UFO activity across e.g. N Am (where 99% of NUFORC sightings come
from) is associated with fewer sinkholes.

But we can zoom in on the relationship by correlating just those UFO
sightings around Florida with new sinkholes. If UFOs are associated
with sinkholes then Florida UFO sightings should be a "proximal cause"
and maybe have an even stronger relationship to sinkholes.

Here's the time-series regression for Florida sightings and Florida
sinkholes:

(Auto corr detected; estimated rho = 0.593218)
y = 0.146129*x + -1.51184
beta in 0.146129 +- 0.0602034 95% CI
alpha in -1.51184 +- 1.35459
P(beta>0.000000) = 0.999851
r2 = 0.74521753
calculated Spearman corr = 0.601399
Critical Spearman = 0.504000 2-sided at 5%; reject H0:not_connected

Binned data:
Bin label av Fla sightings/mo av sinkholes/mo model-est sinkholes/mo
2006 19.3074 4.09531 1.30952*
2007 21.9167 1.5 1.69081
2000 23.9575 4.96926 1.98903*
1998 28.297 4.77677 2.62316*
1994 33.6127 4.52778 3.39993
2003 38.66 5.13758 4.13749
2005 45.6891 2.63636 5.16464*
1988 48.325 8.11113 5.54982*
2004 55.2286 3.45455 6.55863**
1985 90.2067 12.5833 11.6699

Bingo! N Am UFO sightings were linked with ~53% of sinkholes but
Florida sightings are linked with 75% of sinkholes. A much stronger
link, as hoped for. And this time the 2 stat tests agree the link is
too positive to be due to chance. The T-test says less than 1 chance
in 100 it could be "a coincidence". The Rank test says 5 chances in
100 it could just be luck. Together we're talking maybe 1 chance in
1000 it's a coincidence.

It seems Florida UFO sightings are a good predictor of how many
sinkholes will be forming per month in the same year.

And a simple "mental model" of why works with the other nebulous data
we have from Siberia as well as Florida UFO folklore that mutters
about offshore UFO bases. Maybe the suckers are digging around under
Florida which sits on a spongy base of Swiss-cheese limestone.

Geology of Florida
The Floridian peninsula is a porous plateau of karst limestone sitting atop
bedrock known as the Florida Platform. The emergent portion of the platform
was created during the Eocene to Oligocene as the Gulf Trough filled with
silts, clays, and sands. Flora and fauna began appearing during the Miocene.
-- wiki

Sounds ideal for digging!

Too bad some of the sinkholes suck down people's homes and some
residents.

--
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[Miniflu!]
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--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: www.darkrealms.ca (1:229/2)