WTIO30 FMEE 271906
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 3/15/20202021
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15

2.A POSITION 2021/03/27 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.8 S / 66.7 E
(TEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY SIX DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 998 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 0 SW: 110 NW: 165

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/03/28 06 UTC: 10.9 S / 67.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 0 SW: 95 NW: 95

24H: 2021/03/28 18 UTC: 10.4 S / 68.6 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP

36H: 2021/03/29 06 UTC: 9.4 S / 69.7 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP

48H: 2021/03/29 18 UTC: 8.8 S / 70.4 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, REMNANT LOW

60H: 2021/03/30 06 UTC: 8.6 S / 70.6 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, REMNANT LOW

72H: 2021/03/30 18 UTC: 8.3 S / 70.6 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, REMNANT LOW

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
FT=2.0- CI=2.0+

OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS, THE SYSTEM CLOUD PATTERN BARELY EVOLVED,
SUFFERING FROM A STRONG SHEAR (20/25KT ACCORDING TO SHEAR). HOWEVER
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS STILL PRESENT AND QUITE STRONG IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.THE INNER CORE SEEMS STILL QUITE HEALTHY ON THE LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGES OR THE 1408Z MICROWAVE. NO CHANGE WAS MADE FOR THE
INITIAL INTENSITY.

THE CURRENT AND FORECAST ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS ARE MIXED TO UNFAVORABLE: THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS CURRENTLY
GOOD ON THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN SIDES OF THE SYSTEM. IT WILL BECOME
VERY INDIRECT FROM MONDAY, WHERE THE STRENGTHENING OF THE EQUATORIAL
WESTERLIES IS NOT EXPECTED TO FEED THE CIRCULATION DIRECTLY. THE
SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING AN EASTERLY SHEAR ON THE NORTHERN
EDGE OF THE UPPER LEVELS RIDGE. THIS CONSTRAINT SHOULD CONTINUE
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND EVEN STRENGTHEN FROM MONDAY ONWARDS WITH
THE POSSIBLE NORTHEASTWARD TREND, THUS FAVOURING DRY AIR INTRUSION.
THE POTENTIAL FOR REACHING THE MODERATE TROPICAL STORM STAGE LOOKS
QUITE SMALL NOW, ESPECIALLY BEYOND TOMORROW EVENING.

IN TERMS OF TRACK, THIS ONE IS DRIVEN FOR A GOOD PART OF THE PERIOD
BY THE DYNAMIC OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL WESTERLY FLOW WHILE THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, TO THE SOUTH, IS NOT VERY STRONG, NOT VERY THICK
AND TENDS TO WEAKEN AT THE SHORT TERM, BEFORE STRENGTHENING LATER. A SIGNIFICANT DISPERSION EXISTS AROUND THIS SCENARIO NEXT WEEK MOSTLY
DEPENDING ON THE WEAKENING RATE.

THIS SYSTEM HAS NO IMPACT ON THE INHABITED LANDS OF THE BASIN DURING
THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
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