WTIO30 FMEE 141235
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 44/13/20202021
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 13 (HABANA)

2.A POSITION 2021/03/14 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.0 S / 70.8 E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 3 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/4.0/W 1.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 974 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 60 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 41 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 280 SW: 335 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 185 SW: 220 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 95
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/03/15 00 UTC: 21.9 S / 70.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 315 SW: 335 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 215 SW: 195 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 95 NW: 35

24H: 2021/03/15 12 UTC: 21.7 S / 70.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 280 SW: 335 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 195 SW: 185 NW: 85

36H: 2021/03/16 00 UTC: 21.5 S / 68.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SW: 285 NW: 55

48H: 2021/03/16 12 UTC: 21.5 S / 67.2 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP

60H: 2021/03/17 00 UTC: 21.5 S / 65.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP

72H: 2021/03/17 12 UTC: 21.3 S / 64.5 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.0+ CI=4.0+

HABANA CLOUD PATTERN EVOLVED PROGRESSIVELY TOWARD A SHEAR PATTERN
WITH THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION LOCATED NORTH-WETS OF THE MAIN
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, BECAUSE OF THE STRONG MID LEVEL SHEAR. 0930Z
AMSR2 DATA, HOWEVER STILL SHOW A STRONG INNER CORE AT LOW LEVELS. IN
THE CONTINUITY OF THE OBSERVED WEAKENING, INTENSITY IS DOWNGRADED TO
60KT.

THE MAIN FEATURES OF THE FORECAST DO NOT CHANGE. HABANA IS SLOWLY
DRIFTING SOUTH-EASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF VERY WEAK AND
CONTRADICTORY STEERING FLOWS. TOMORROW MONDAY AND ONWARDS, IT SHOULD
RESUME ITS WESTWARDS TRACK, AFTER WEAKENING, UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OF LOW TROPOSPHERE WHICH IS STRENGTHENING TO
THE SOUTHWEST. THE SYSTEM, EXPECTED THEN TO BE FILLING UP, WILL
CONTINUE ITS MOVEMENT IN A GENERAL WESTERLY DIRECTION ON THE NORTHERN
SIDE OF THIS RIDGE. THE RSMC'S TRACK IS BASED ON A COMPROMISE BETWEEN
THE BEST AVAILABLE GUIDANCE, ESPECIALLY THE EUROPEAN DETERMINISTIC.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, WE KEEP THE SAME PHILOSOPHY. THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE UNFAVORABLE WITH A STRONG MID-TROPOSPHERE SHEAR
BRINGING DRY AIR GRADUALLY TO THE INNER CORE. THE WEAK MOVEMENT MAY
LIMIT THE OCEANIC POTENTIAL. ON MONDAY, AS IT RESUMES ITS OVERALL
WESTWARD MOTION, HABANA IS NOT EXPECTED TO MEET A CONDUCIVE
ENVIRONMENT WITH DRY AIR ALL ABOVE THE CENTER.

ON WEDNESDAY, THE REMNANT LOW OF HABANA SHOULD EVOLVE SOUTH OF
RODRIGUES ISLAND WITHOUT ANY PARTICULAR CONSEQUENCE IN TERMS OF WINDS
OR RAIN. EASTERLY SWELL GENERATED BY HABANA HAS ALREADY PROPAGATED TO
THE MASCAREIGNES ISLANDS AND WILL LAST DURING THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK.
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