WTIO30 FMEE 221853
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 29/7/20202021
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 7 (ELOISE)

2.A POSITION 2021/01/22 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.5 S / 36.1 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY SIX DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/D 1.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 974 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 70 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 350 SW: 295 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 270 SW: 220 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SW: 70 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 45

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/01/23 06 UTC: 20.3 S / 34.2 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 315 SW: 155 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 165 SW: 110 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SW: 65 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 55

24H: 2021/01/23 18 UTC: 21.1 S / 32.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 315 SW: 0 NW: 0

36H: 2021/01/24 06 UTC: 22.0 S / 31.3 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

48H: 2021/01/24 18 UTC: 22.7 S / 29.8 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

60H: 2021/01/25 06 UTC: 22.7 S / 28.2 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

72H: 2021/01/25 18 UTC: 22.7 S / 26.3 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/01/26 18 UTC: 22.2 S / 23.3 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.5

THE ELOISE'S EYE CONFIGURATION HAS FLUCTUATED OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS
BUT OVERALL SINCE 15Z, THE OVERALL LOOK IS IMPROVING. JUST BEFORE
18Z, THE EYE HAS BECOME WARMER AND BETTER DEFINED. THE SSMIS F17 PASS
OF 1637Z REVEALED AN EYE STRUGGLING TO CONSOLIDATE. IN ACCORDANCE
WITH DVORAK SUBJECTIVE ESTIMATES, THE INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 70
KT.

THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK
MOVING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED
SOUTHEAST OF MADAGASCAR. ELOISE IS EXPECTED TO LAND IN MOZAMBIQUE
TONIGHT OR TOMORROW MORNING. FROM MONDAY, THE REMNANTS OF ELOISE ARE
EXPECTED TO DRIFT WESTWARD, DRIVEN BY A NEW RIDGE ARRIVING FROM THE
WEST. THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE LANDFALL COULD CHANGE
SIGNIFICANTLY GIVEN THE CONFIGURATION OF THE COASTLINE.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR A
SIGNIFICANT OR EVEN RAPID INTENSIFICATION (WARM WATERS, HUMID
ENVIRONMENT, NO SHEAR AND EXCELLENT UPPER DIVERGENCE). NEVERTHELESS,
THE PROXIMITY TO THE LAND IS LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR
INTENSIFICATION WITH THE NORTHERN PART OF THE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS
THAT COULD MOVE OVERLAND BEFORE LANDFALL.

IN TERMS OF IMPACTS, ELOISE REPRESENTS A SIGNIFICANT THREAT TO THE
AREA NEAR BEIRA, BETWEEN QUELIMANE IN THE NORTH AND THE SAVE RIVER IN
THE SOUTH:
- IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS, 150 TO 250 MM OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED BETWEEN
THE MOUTH OF THE ZAMBEZE AND VILANCULOS, AND UP TO 300 MM LOCALLY IN
THE REGION OF BEIRA. OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, HEAVY RAINS (CUMULATIVE
RAINFALL OF MORE THAN 100 MM/24H) WILL MOVE BOTH WESTWARD (SOUTH
ZIMBABWE, NORTH SOUTH AFRICA AND EAST BOTSWANA) BUT ALSO SOUTHWARD
(MAPUTO REGION THIS WEEKEND) AS WELL AS SWAZILAND AND NORTHEAST SOUTH
AFRICA.
- GUSTS WILL EXCEED 100KM/H THROUGHOUT THIS COASTAL ZONE, AND BETWEEN
150 AND 200 KM/H AS CLOSE AS POSSIBLE TO THE POINT OF IMPACT.
- AN ADDITIONAL COST OF AROUND 1M TO 1M50 ON AVERAGE IS EXPECTED
NORTH OF BEIRA AND BETWEEN 1M50 AND 2M SOUTH OF BEIRA. THIS OVERCOTE
COULD EXCEED 3M ACCORDING TO THE MOST UNFAVORABLE SCENARIO (LANDING
ON OR NORTH OF BEIRA), NEAR THE PUNGWE RIVER. ALTHOUGH OF LOW
COEFFICIENT, THE HIGH WATER LEVEL AT 00Z COULD BE AN AGGRAVATING
FACTOR.

THE INHABITANTS OF MOZAMBIQUE AND COUNTRIES CONCERNED BY THE RISK OF
HEAVY RAINS IN THE FOLLOWING DAYS ARE INVITED TO FOLLOW THE
INSTRUCTIONS OF THE LOCAL AUTHORITIES.
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