WTIO30 FMEE 020048
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 9/5/20202021
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 5

2.A POSITION 2021/01/02 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.0 S / 79.5 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY NINE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.0/D 0.5/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 999 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 185 SW: 185 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/01/02 12 UTC: 15.2 S / 76.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 295 SW: 280 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 140 SW: 120 NW: 75

24H: 2021/01/03 00 UTC: 14.9 S / 74.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 295 SW: 280 NW: 45

36H: 2021/01/03 12 UTC: 13.5 S / 75.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP




2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:

OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED
NEAR THE CENTER. HOWEVER ACCORDING TO THE LAST IMAGES AND MICROWAVE
DATA (1933Z AMSR2 AND 2222Z SSMIS), THERE ARE NOT MUCH SIGNS OF
STRONG CURVATURE IN THE INNER CORE. AWAITING CLEARER CLUES FOR
DEEPNING, INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 30KT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 5 CONTINUES ITS MORE MARKED WESTERLY MOVEMENT ON
THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM
WILL MAINTAIN THIS WESTERLY TRAJECTORY UNTIL TONIGHT WHILE
ACCELERATING. THEREAFTER, THE SYSTEM SHOULD INTERACT WITH THE
MODERATE TROPICAL STORM DANILO PRESENT IN THE NORTHWEST, IN A
FUJIWHARA EFFECT. GIVEN THE CONTEXT, UNCERTAINTIES ARE VERY IMPORTANT
AS IN THE INTENSITY OR THE TRACK FORECAST.

GIVEN THE LATEST GUIDANCE, IT SEEMS NOW LIKELY THAT STORM DANILO TAKE
OVER IN THIS STRUGGLE WITH 05 WHICH SHOULD DISAPPEAR WITHIN ITS
CIRCULATION. UP TO THEN, IN A RATHER FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT IN THE
NEXT 12H WITH GOOD CONVERGENCE ON THE POLAR SIDE AND A LOW SHEAR, THE
MODERATE TROPICAL STORM STATUS COULD BE REACHED.
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