208
WTNT31 KNHC 141457
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Iota Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020
1000 AM EST Sat Nov 14 2020

...IOTA REMAINS DISORGANIZED BUT STILL EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN...
...RISK OF DANGEROUS WINDS, STORM SURGE, AND RAINFALL IMPACTS IN
CENTRAL AMERICA BEGINNING MONDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM EST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION -----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.7N 76.2W
ABOUT 370 MI...590 KM S OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 495 MI...795 KM ESE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Colombia has issued a Tropical Storm warning for
the islands of San Andres and Providencia.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* San Andres
* Providencia

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests in Nicaragua and Honduras should monitor the progress of
Iota, and a Hurricane Watch will likely be issued later today for
portions of these countries.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM EST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Iota was
located near latitude 12.7 North, longitude 76.2 West. Iota is
moving toward the west-southwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A westward
motion with some increase in forward speed is expected to begin
later today and continue through Monday. On the forecast track, Iota
will move across the central Caribbean Sea during the next day or
so, and approach the coasts of Nicaragua and northeastern Honduras
on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Steady to rapid strengthening is likely to begin tonight or
Sunday, and Iota is forecast to be at or near major hurricane
strength when it approaches Central America.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Rainfall: Iota is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through Thursday:

Honduras, northern Nicaragua, eastern Guatemala, southern Belize: 8
to 16 inches (200 to 400 mm). Isolated maximum totals of 20-30
inches (500 to 750 mm) will be possible, especially from northeast
Nicaragua into northern Honduras.

Costa Rica, Panama, and northern Colombia: 4 to 8 inches (100 to 200
mm), with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches (300 mm).

This rainfall would lead to significant, life-threatening flash
flooding and river flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher
terrain.

El Salvador, southern Nicaragua and southern Honduras: 2 to 4 inches
(50 to 100 mm), with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches (150 mm).

Jamaica: 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 mm)

Wind: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin on the
islands of San Andres and Providencia late Sunday.

SURF: Swells generated by Iota will affect portions of the coast of
Colombia, and the southern coasts of Hispaniola and Jamaica during
the next day or two. Swells will begin to reach the coasts of
Nicaragua and Honduras on Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM EST.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM EST.

$$
Forecaster Brown
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