151
WTNT34 KNHC 121154
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Nineteen Intermediate Advisory Number 3A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020
800 AM EDT Sat Sep 12 2020

...DEPRESSION NEAR EXTREME SOUTHWEST FLORIDA PENINSULA...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO
LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.6N 81.1W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM SE OF NAPLES FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Ochlockonee River to Okaloosa/Walton County Line

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area within the next 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the northern Gulf Coast should monitor the
progress of this system. Tropical storm or hurricane watches
could be issued for a portion of that area on Saturday.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nineteen
was located near latitude 25.6 North, longitude 81.1 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h), and a
turn toward the west-northwest is expected later today. A
west-northwestward or northwestward motion with a decrease in
forward speed is then expected during the next couple of days. On
the forecast track, the center is forecast to move over the
southeastern and eastern Gulf of Mexico later today and Sunday, and
then move over the north-central Gulf of Mexico Sunday night and
Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is expected when the center moves over the
Gulf of Mexico, and the depression is expected to become a tropical
storm later today or tonight and gradually intensify Sunday and
Monday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in
the Florida Panhandle by Sunday night. Wind gusts to tropical-
storm force are possible across the southern portion of the Florida
peninsula today.

RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Nineteen is expected to produce total
rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum
amounts of 6 inches across west-central and southern Florida,
including the Florida Keys, through Sunday. This rainfall may
produce scattered flash flooding and prolong high flows and ongoing
minor flooding on rivers across Central Florida.

Tropical Depression Nineteen is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 6
inches across portions of the central Gulf Coast Sunday through
Tuesday morning. This rainfall could produce scattered flash
flooding.

SURF: Swells are expected to spread northward along the
west-central coast of Florida and the Florida Panhandle during the
next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two is possible today and tonight over
southern Florida.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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