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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0528

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Saturday, May 26, 2018 16:59:47
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    ACUS11 KWNS 261659
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 261658
    LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-261930-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0528
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1158 AM CDT Sat May 26 2018

    Areas affected...From the Sabine river across central and northern
    Louisiana and far southeast Arkansas

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

    Valid 261658Z - 261930Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Scattered storms are expected to develop this afternoon,
    with isolated strong wind gusts and small hail possible.

    DISCUSSION...A weak upper low currently exists over AR, with the
    broader upper trough extending along the lower MS Valley. This
    feature is providing cool temperatures aloft, while at the same
    time, a very moist air mass continues to warm. MLCAPE values may
    exceed 3000 J/kg by early afternoon, while winds aloft remain very
    weak. Visible imagery currently shows an increasing CU field across
    northern LA, This should favor strong pulse storms which should
    generally propagate in a southerly direction through the afternoon.

    ..Jewell/Hart.. 05/26/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...LCH...SHV...HGX...

    LAT...LON 31069460 32209313 32749245 33349215 33539183 33539141
    33259123 32829130 31949149 31249180 30909228 30609285
    30319354 30319405 30429443 30679463 31069460



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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Saturday, May 04, 2019 16:35:48
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    ACUS11 KWNS 041635
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 041635
    SCZ000-NCZ000-GAZ000-041800-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0528
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1135 AM CDT Sat May 04 2019

    Areas affected...portions of northern Georgia and into the western
    Carolinas

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

    Valid 041635Z - 041800Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Severe potential -- primarily in the form of locally
    gusty/damaging winds -- should increase gradually this afternoon.
    WW may be needed.

    DISCUSSION...Latest surface and objective analyses show a
    warming/destabilizing airmass across parts of the southern
    Appalachians region/western Carolinas. In response, convective
    development has been gradually increasing across this region, as
    mixed-layer CAPE increases to around 1500 J/kg.

    Moderate (20 to 40 kt) and roughly unidirectional
    (west-southwesterly) flow is indicated through the lower and middle
    troposphere across the region, with 0 to 6 KM shear a bit weak for
    evolution of appreciable updraft rotation in cellular convection.
    As such, only limited/local potential for gusty/damaging winds would
    be expected with isolated cells. However, convection is showing
    signs of tendency for upscale growth into small bands. The anticipated/continued linear evolution -- at least at small scales
    -- would allow greater risk for congealed convective outflow, with
    bands moving east-northeastward at 30 to 40 kt. As additional storm development/upscale growth of storms occurs over the next 1-2 hours,
    damaging wind potential may become sufficient to warrant eventual WW
    issuance.

    ..Goss/Guyer.. 05/04/2019

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...CAE...GSP...MRX...FFC...

    LAT...LON 35578319 35858216 35528151 34238043 33148256 32678405
    33588468 34568480 35578319



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