This is a multi-part message in MIME format...
------------=_1526773845-1857-1304
Content-Type: text/plain
ACUS11 KWNS 192350
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 192350
TXZ000-OKZ000-NMZ000-200215-
Mesoscale Discussion 0467
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0650 PM CDT Sat May 19 2018
Areas affected...Northeast NM and portions of the OK/TX Panhandles
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 192350Z - 200215Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe storms will remain possible as
ongoing northeast New Mexico storms and any new development advance
to the east-southeast into western parts of the OK Panhandle and
much of the Texas Panhandle this evening. Convective trends will be
monitored for any upscale growth or greater storm coverage that
would warrant watch issuance.
DISCUSSION...Trends in mosaic radar imagery showed discrete storms
that developed within upslope flow into the higher terrain of
northeast NM are propagating to the east-southeast toward the
western OK/TX Panhandles where instability is stronger. Additional
storms have formed in vicinity of a front that extended east-west
between KCVS and KROW, and then northwest into the front range of
the southern Rockies. Moist, easterly low-level winds should
maintain an influx of favorable thetae air into the northeast NM
band of storms. Mainly isolated strong to severe storms will remain
possible during the next 3 hours until 9-10 PM, prior to the
development of strong surface-based inhibition with the loss of
daytime heating. Steep low- and mid-level lapse rates will favor
strong outflow wind gusts, while isolated large hail will be
possible as well. Given 1) the current isolated coverage of the
stronger storms in northeast NM, and 2) a relatively short window
for storms to be capable of being severe (until 9-10 PM), a watch
does not appear necessary at this time. Last several runs of the
operational HRRR and 12Z HREF suggest mainly isolated occurrences of strong-severe storms, which would confirm the expected conceptual
evolution of storms across this region this evening.
..Peters/Hart.. 05/19/2018
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...ABQ...
LAT...LON 33620274 33970344 34850412 35240406 36110358 36700316
36830276 36750141 36060087 35210049 34640050 34090093
33620171 33620274
------------=_1526773845-1857-1304
Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII"
Content-Disposition: inline
Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT
= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at
cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. ------------=_1526773845-1857-1304--
--- SBBSecho 3.03-Linux
* Origin: CCO BBS - capitolcityonline.net:26 (1:2320/105)