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ACUS11 KWNS 140947
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 140947
TNZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-141115-

Mesoscale Discussion 0202
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0447 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2019

Areas affected...Eastern AR...Far Southwest TN...Far Northwest MS

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 140947Z - 141115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Convective trends are being monitored closely for
potential Tornado Watch issuance across eastern AR, far southwest
TN, and far northwest MS.

DISCUSSION...Air mass recovery is underway across portions of
eastern AR, far southwest TN, and far northwest MS. In this area,
temperatures have increased by 3 to 5 deg F and dewpoints have
increased by 2 to 4 deg F over the past two hours. This has resulted
in an erosion of much of the convective inhibition downstream of the
ongoing thunderstorms over central AR. Mesoanalysis estimates less
than 25 J/kg of MLCIN exists with MLCAPE estimated to be around 1000
J/kg.

In contrast to the only marginally favorable thermodynamics, the
strong wind fields aloft coupled with strong (i.e. around 20 kt)
southeasterly surface winds across the region are contributing to a
strongly sheared environment. Recent NQA VAD profiles sampled over
50 kt of 0-1 km shear and 0-1 km SRH over 500 m2/s2.

Given the marginal thermodynamics and unfavorable time of day,
uncertainty regarding severe coverage is high. Even so, the strength
of the shear merits concern and convective trends of the upstream
storms will be monitored closely.

..Mosier/Bunting.. 03/14/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

LAT...LON 35679135 36199052 36158941 35638918 34578969 33189088
33129283 34449232 35679135



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