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ACUS11 KWNS 100121
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 100120
TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-100245-

Mesoscale Discussion 0178
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0720 PM CST Sat Mar 09 2019

Areas affected...Far Northeast MS...Northern AL...Middle TN

Concerning...Tornado Watch 15...16...

Valid 100120Z - 100245Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 15, 16 continues.

SUMMARY...Potential for isolated damaging wind gusts and/or a brief
tornado will continue across northeast MS, northern AL, and middle
TN for the next hour or two.

DISCUSSION...KGWX radar imagery has shown sporadic and brief
low-level rotation within the supercell now moving through southern
Lowndes county. However, latest scans have shown a trend towards
less low-level inflow/low-level organization with velocity values
decreasing and the previously observed ZDR arc losing definition.
Echo tops have also decreased over the past 30 min or so. Strongest
updraft (based on echo top) appears to be associated with the storm
in Franklin and Cobert counties in far northwest AL. Downstream air
mass from both of these storms suggests a gradual decrease in
intensity as instability wanes. Even so, given the strong low-level
shear, brief low-level organization capable of isolated wind
damaging and or a brief tornado remains possible.

Farther north, the convective line moving across middle TN has shown
modest intensification, particularly over the last 30 min or so.
Downstream thermodynamic environment is characterized by
temperatures in the 60s, dewpoints in the limited instability. Even
so, very strong low-level shear (sampled well by the 00Z BNA
sounding) could still support instances of damaging wind gusts and
perhaps a brief tornado before the line moves into cooler, more
stable air north of the warm front.

..Mosier.. 03/10/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...

LAT...LON 33438845 34048830 34668788 35608684 36578600 36268543
34718643 33818712 33158788 33138822 33438845



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