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ACUS11 KWNS 091106
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 091105
MNZ000-IAZ000-SDZ000-091600-

Mesoscale Discussion 0167
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0505 AM CST Sat Mar 09 2019

Areas affected...Portions of eastern SD...northwestern IA...and
southwestern MN

Concerning...Freezing rain

Valid 091105Z - 091600Z

SUMMARY...Freezing rain rates up to 0.05 inch per hour may occur
through 16Z (10 am CST).

DISCUSSION...Showery precipitation ongoing across eastern NE/SD and
western IA at 11Z is likely related to low-level warm and moist air
advection occurring with a 30-40 kt south-southeasterly low-level
jet. Surface temperatures remain at or below freezing across much of
eastern SD, northwestern IA, and southwestern MN this morning per
recent surface observations. A +2 to +4C warm nose centered around
850 mb associated with the low-level jet is melting hydrometeors
aloft, with refreezing occurring at the surface. One observation
site in eastern SD (KMHE) recently reported 0.06 inch of ice
accretion in one hour. Freezing rain rates around 0.05 inch per hour
should remain possible across this region for at least the next few
hours. A better chance for ice accretion should develop where
surface temperatures can remain at or below 30F, namely parts of far
eastern SD into southwestern MN. The freezing rain should slowly
change to rain from south to north across northwestern IA and
vicinity later this morning as surface temperatures climb above
freezing. A transition from freezing rain to snow may also occur
across parts of eastern SD around 14-16Z as the low-levels cool,
with the northeastward progression of an upper trough across the
Plains.

..Gleason.. 03/09/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FSD...ABR...

LAT...LON 42929609 43029724 43309800 43779833 44399825 44869723
44979585 44659484 44119407 43469414 43169450 42949533
42929609



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