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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0158

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Monday, March 04, 2019 08:06:00
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS11 KWNS 040705
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 040705
    FLZ000-040900-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0158
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0105 AM CST Mon Mar 04 2019

    Areas affected...portions of west-central/northwest FL

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

    Valid 040705Z - 040900Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...A strong wind gust or two will be possible as
    thunderstorms move onshore the next few hours. Overall severe threat
    will remain limited and a watch is not expected.

    DISCUSSION...A line of strong storms offshore and to the north of
    the Tampa Bay vicinity will continue to track toward the
    west-central/northwest FL coast over the next few hours. Short-term
    hi-res guidance suggests this convection should weaken as it moves
    inland. However, at least low-end potential exists for a strong wind
    gust or two to occur near the coast before weakening ensues. This is
    mainly supported by a tongue of weak (500-1000 J/kg) instability
    along the coast coincident with surface dewpoints in the upper 60s
    to low 70s F. Additionally, deep-layer shear remains quite strong
    and capable of maintaining organized convection. In addition to a
    strong gust or two, the tornado threat across the region is
    non-zero. Favorable instability/shear parameters noted above will
    align with 0-1 SRH values around 100-200 m2/s2. However, as
    temperatures continue to cool, weak boundary-layer inhibition should
    limit overall tornado threat. Overall, severe threat appears limited
    in scope as well as in space and time and a watch is not expected.

    ..Leitman/Edwards.. 03/04/2019

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...

    LAT...LON 28278287 28788265 28818235 28818204 28678179 28518166
    28108160 27908171 27558210 27468250 27458271 27568288
    27858296 28278287



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