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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0155

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Monday, March 04, 2019 01:14:27
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS11 KWNS 040014
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 040013
    NCZ000-SCZ000-040215-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0155
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0613 PM CST Sun Mar 03 2019

    Areas affected...northeast South Carolina and southern North
    Carolina

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

    Valid 040013Z - 040215Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...The potential for isolated damaging winds and perhaps a
    brief tornado will exist across the discussion area this evening. A
    watch is possible, and trends in thunderstorm coverage and intensity
    are being monitored.

    DISCUSSION...Regional radar at 00Z shows a large area rain and
    thunderstorms over much of SC, with several embedded bowing segments
    and transient low-level circulations. As this area of
    rain/thunderstorms moves northeast across the discussion area, the thermodynamic environment will exhibit modest instability this
    evening with MUCAPE averaging less than 500 J/kg. Low-level winds
    will strengthen significantly, however, with 850-mb winds in the
    60-70 kt range in the 03-06Z time frame. This environment will
    support a risk for isolated/transient bowing segments posing a risk
    for damaging winds and perhaps a brief tornado this evening, however
    the overall threat should remain isolated given the marginal
    thermodynamic environment.

    ..Bunting/Guyer.. 03/04/2019

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...

    LAT...LON 33097899 33437984 33628001 33977979 34297984 34567966
    34837942 34927897 34847849 34767803 34457750 34017788
    33627875 33447888 33097899



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