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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0944

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Friday, June 29, 2018 22:32:17
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    ACUS11 KWNS 292232
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 292231
    NEZ000-SDZ000-WYZ000-300000-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0944
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0531 PM CDT Fri Jun 29 2018

    Areas affected...southeast WY...NE Panhandle

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

    Valid 292231Z - 300000Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...Storms will likely develop over the next few hours near
    the WY/NE border. Isolated severe gusts/hail are the primary
    threats as this activity moves east into the NE Panhandle.
    Convective trends will be monitored during the next 1-2 hours
    concerning a severe thunderstorm watch issuance.

    DISCUSSION...Visible satellite shows an agitated cumulus field over
    southeast WY with some of the more vigorous towers glaciating over
    the past 30 minutes. Surface temperatures have warmed to near 90
    degrees F with 50s and 60s dewpoints in Goshen County, WY into the
    NE Panhandle. Surface flow and implied surface convergence are
    weak, but as a mid-level shortwave trough continues towards the area
    this evening, ascent and gradual moistening near the capping
    inversion by repeated convective turrets will likely lead to
    isolated to scattered thunderstorm coverage. Strong 0-6 km shear
    (50kt) coupled with moderate buoyancy and steep lapse rates will
    support several intense updrafts. Large hail will be a risk with
    the stronger storms as well as a threat for isolated 50-60 kt gusts.

    ..Smith/Edwards.. 06/29/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...CYS...

    LAT...LON 42530525 43020234 42260195 41330232 41100475 41470519
    42530525



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