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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0116

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wednesday, February 20, 2019 17:45:10
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS11 KWNS 201645
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 201644
    ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-201845-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0116
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1044 AM CST Wed Feb 20 2019

    Areas affected...Portions of Mississippi...Louisiana...and far
    western Alabama

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

    Valid 201644Z - 201845Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...An isolated threat for damaging wind gusts and perhaps a
    tornado will continue through early afternoon.

    DISCUSSION...Broken bands of convection continue to migrate
    north-northeastward around 45 knots across the discussion area.
    These trends should continue through early afternoon, with weak
    forcing aloft and a lack of large-scale ascent favoring
    quasi-discrete convective modes. Convective development should also
    continue to regenerate on the southern end of the discussion area
    given weakly confluent low-level flow amidst weakly buoyant
    (500-1000 J/kg MUCAPE), uncapped thermodynamic profiles. Strong
    low-level shear (as evidenced by 300-400 m2/s2 effective SRH) in the
    warm sector will continue to foster occasional mesocyclogenesis
    (especially within right-moving cellular storms) and bowing
    segments, which should foster a continued, yet isolated, tornado and damaging-wind threat through at least early afternoon.

    ..Cook/Guyer.. 02/20/2019

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...

    LAT...LON 32938921 33308891 33378827 33068812 32148821 31048821
    30478830 30008896 29828976 30019051 30479062 31149037
    32938921



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