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ACUS11 KWNS 170127
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 170126
MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-170630-

Mesoscale Discussion 0105
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0726 PM CST Sat Feb 16 2019

Areas affected...East NE...southwest into Central IA...northern MO

Concerning...Heavy snow

Valid 170126Z - 170630Z

SUMMARY...Heavy snow expected over the next several hours. Up to 1
inch/hr snowfall rates will be possible in some spots.

DISCUSSION...A mid-level shortwave trough and associated 850 mb low
are currently established in the Central Plains, preceded by
deep-layer moisture advection and low-level WAA across the
Mid-Missouri Valley. At the moment, the thermodynamic profile of the troposphere across the discussion area can be characterized by
near-saturated to saturated conditions in the sfc-700 mb layer (per
00Z TOP observed soundings and recent RAP point-forecast soundings),
with relatively strong WAA advection present in the 925-700 mb
layer, amidst below-freezing temperatures throughout the column.

The -12 to -17C layer, favorable for dendritic growth, is nearly
saturated and quite deep across the discussion area (per latest
mesoscale analysis) and is expected to remain so for several more
hours, as the aforementioned WAA and large scale ascent continues to
impinge on the region. As such, conditions support at least
occasionally heavy snow throughout the evening hours, with a few
spots potentially seeing accumulation rates of up to 1 inch/hr, as
supported by the latest high resolution model guidance.

..Squitieri.. 02/17/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...TOP...GID...

LAT...LON 41379175 40209199 39589309 39359470 39789599 40169718
40619810 41599783 42209666 42349506 42249410 41759268
41379175



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