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ACUS11 KWNS 121548
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121548
NYZ000-MAZ000-CTZ000-VTZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-121945-

Mesoscale Discussion 0101
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0948 AM CST Tue Feb 12 2019

Areas affected...central and eastern PA...northern NJ...central and
eastern NY...CT...western MA and southern VT

Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation

Valid 121548Z - 121945Z

SUMMARY...A wintry precipitation mix will persist into the afternoon
across the northeast states. Mostly freezing rain is expected from
central to southeast PA with rates from .03 to locally .1 inch per
hour. From southern NY to southeast NY and northern NJ, areas of
moderate to heavy snow should transition to freezing rain toward
noon or by early afternoon. Farther north from east central NY into
northern CT, western MA and southern VT, areas of mostly moderate to
heavy snow are expected.

DISCUSSION...A large, mature winter storm is in progress over
portions of the northeast states. Surface low will deepen over MI
within zone of strong forcing for ascent accompanying a progressive
shortwave trough. This process will result in a strengthening (60+
kt) southerly low-level jet shifting northward through PA, NY and
southern New England later this morning into the afternoon. The
interaction of the low level jet with the east-west oriented
baroclinic zone will augment isentropic ascent, promoting a
continued northeast expansion of the precipitation area. Bands of
moderate to heavy snow promoted by an increase in frontogenetic
forcing will develop northeast with time through central and eastern
NY. While farther south from southern NY, northeast PA into northern
NJ and southern CT, increasing warm advection along low-level jet
corridor will contribute to northward advance of the melting layer
aloft, eventually resulting in a transition from snow to sleet and
freezing rain. Precipitation should remain freezing rain across
central and southern PA this morning.

..Dial.. 02/12/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP...
PBZ...

LAT...LON 43337651 43877508 43347296 42367231 41587280 40847350
40467412 40017589 39907687 40227828 41487942 42657827
43337651



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