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ACUS11 KWNS 121539
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121538
GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-121745-

Mesoscale Discussion 0100
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0938 AM CST Tue Feb 12 2019

Areas affected...Portions of southern and eastern
Alabama...west-central Georgia...and the western Florida panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 121538Z - 121745Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A line of showers and thunderstorms continues to move east
across Alabama into southeastern Mississippi and will pose a threat
for marginal severe wind gusts and a brief tornado, but a Watch is
not expected at this time.

DISCUSSION...An extensive line of showers and a few thunderstorms
continues to push eastward through the area this morning. Marginal
positive buoyancy and shear vectors oriented at a small angle to the
line have kept the convection somewhat disorganized and below severe
limits the last few hours. Some diurnal heating is ongoing through
broken low-level stratus and a thin cirrus shield, bringing surface temperatures into the upper 60s in the northern part of the area and
into the low 70s over the central and southern portions of the area.
Although mid-level lapse rates will remain poor, this heating
should allow for surface-based CAPE of 500-1250 J/kg as mid-60s
dewpoints are advected northward through the area.

The increase in low-level buoyancy has allowed for some minor uptick
in convective intensity within the line, particularly from
Birmingham to Camden, where a weak mesoscale circulation could also
contribute to further convective strengthening in the next few
hours. A few damaging winds and isolated severe gusts are possible
with the more organized segments of the line. Although the tornado
threat remains low everywhere, the threat for a brief tornado is
higher over the northern portion of the area where the 0-1-km shear
continues to be 25-35 kt. Overall, the threat for severe weather is
low enough to preclude a Watch at this time, but trends will be
monitored for additional convective strengthening in the next few
hours.

..Coniglio/Hart.. 02/12/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...

LAT...LON 33628659 33778593 33838501 33728435 33408421 32968417
32528426 32118439 31648464 31138497 30798519 30618534
30498572 30478613 30528658 30628718 30688756 30858777
31508758 32738705 33628659



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