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ACUS11 KWNS 120917
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 120916
PAZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-NYZ000-121515-

Mesoscale Discussion 0098
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0316 AM CST Tue Feb 12 2019

Areas affected...Portions of eastern WV...western VA...much of
northern MD...PA...and far western NY

Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation

Valid 120916Z - 121515Z

SUMMARY...Freezing rain rates up to 0.10 inch per hour will be
possible, especially in higher terrain. A wintry mix of snow, sleet,
and freezing rain appears likely across parts of PA into far western
NY through 15Z. The snow and sleet may be heavy at times.

DISCUSSION...Generally light, showery precipitation ongoing at 09Z
across parts of the Mid-Atlantic should gradually increase in
coverage and intensity through the morning as an upper trough
approaches from the west. Surface observations across eastern WV and
western VA show temperatures generally between 30-32F. Light
freezing rain should remain possible across this region for the next
couple of hours, although any substantial accretion will probably be
limited to the highest elevations of the Appalachians due to the
marginal surface temperatures. A shallow sub-freezing layer across
much of northern MD into PA and far western NY will be slow to erode
this morning as surface high pressure remains in place over New
England and Quebec. A weak (+1 to +2C) warm nose around 850 mb
should develop slowly northward, and freezing rain rates up to 0.10
inch/hour will be possible, especially in northern MD and parts of western/central PA. A wintry mix of snow and sleet should occur on
the northeastern edge of the precipitation shield where temperatures
in the surface to 850 mb layer should remain at or below freezing.
The snow and sleet may become heavy at times (snowfall rates up to 1
inch/hour and sleet rates of 0.1 to 0.25 inch/hour) as the
large-scale forcing for ascent associated with the upper trough
overspreads this region.

..Gleason.. 02/12/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...BUF...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...CLE...

LAT...LON 41398045 41888048 42108023 42457950 42567906 42507868
42007841 41517823 41157780 40937718 40627628 40307604
39837599 39567606 39367635 39267681 38967757 38487829
37827901 37787932 37777968 37898006 38048031 38248042
38608011 39037985 39497993 39867963 40457941 40687966
40888020 41398045



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