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ACUS11 KWNS 071227
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 071226
WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-071630-

Mesoscale Discussion 0088
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0626 AM CST Thu Feb 07 2019

Areas affected...eastern IA...northwest IL...southern and eastern WI

Concerning...Freezing rain

Valid 071226Z - 071630Z

SUMMARY...Freezing rain rates 0.05-0.15 inch per 3 hours are
possible this morning. The appreciable freezing rain rates are
forecast to begin first over eastern IA/northwest IL and eventually
spread into WI primarily during the mid-late morning.

DISCUSSION...Radar imagery early this morning shows a precipitation
shield over the middle MS Valley moving to the northeast ahead of a
mid-level dry intrusion evident on water-vapor imagery. An inverted
surface trough is located from west-central IL northeast into
southern Lake Michigan, a secondary trough located over eastern IA
northward into far southeast MN, and a cold front over eastern IA
accelerating east-southeast. Surface temperatures from eastern IA
into southern WI range from near freezing at the Quad Cities into
the mid-upper 20s over south-central WI.

The precipitation shield moving through northeast MO into southeast
IA was associated with hourly freezing rain rates of 0.05-0.15 per north-central MO observations. Expecting the precipitation shield
to move downstream from southeast IA across the far eastern
IA/northwest IL region during the next few hours before moving into
WI. Forecast soundings indicate freezing rain is the favored
precipitation type due to an above freezing layer atop a subfreezing
layer at the surface, with rates generally in the 0.03-0.10 inch per
hour range (0.05-0.15 inches per 3 hours).

..Smith.. 02/07/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GRB...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX...

LAT...LON 41649234 42479169 43788958 43928874 43668807 43288793
40909036 40849142 41099195 41649234



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