1. Forum
  2. Fidonet Message
  3. WEATHER

  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0080

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thursday, February 07, 2019 04:07:10
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

    ------------=_1549508839-5828-341
    Content-Type: text/plain

    ACUS11 KWNS 070307
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 070306
    MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-070500-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0080
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0906 PM CST Wed Feb 06 2019

    Areas affected...Northeast OK...Southeast KS...Southwest MO

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

    Valid 070306Z - 070500Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated hail possible during the next few hours from
    northeast OK/southeast KS into western MO.

    DISCUSSION...In addition to the winter mixed precipitation discussed
    in MCD 79, some threat for hail appears possible across portions of
    northeast OK, southeast KS, and southwest MO. Convection continues
    to develop within the strengthening warm-air advection across the
    region. 00Z soundings at OUN and LMN show the presence of steep
    mid-level lapse rates a top the stable and cold low-level air mass.
    Observed sounding at SGF also shows a steep mid-level lapse rate but
    without the low-level moistening/warming. However, continued warm
    advection into the region will likely promote the development of
    similar thermodynamic profiles to those sampled at OUN and LMN.
    Forecast soundings corroborate this expectation.

    The resulting modest instability coupled with very strong vertical
    shear results in the potential for isolated instances of hail, some
    of which may reach 1" in diameter.

    ..Mosier/Elliott.. 02/07/2019

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...ICT...OUN...

    LAT...LON 36949721 37519657 37899554 38139356 37659309 36999323
    36689364 36429465 36019717 36949721



    ------------=_1549508839-5828-341
    Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII"
    Content-Disposition: inline
    Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT

    = = =
    To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. ------------=_1549508839-5828-341--

    --- SBBSecho 3.06-Linux
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)