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ACUS11 KWNS 070151
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 070151
MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-OKZ000-070745-

Mesoscale Discussion 0079
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0751 PM CST Wed Feb 06 2019

Areas affected...Portions of northern Oklahoma...southern/eastern
Kansas...and western Missouri

Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation

Valid 070151Z - 070745Z

SUMMARY...Winter mixed precipitation will develop across portions of
northern Oklahoma, southern/eastern Kansas, and western Missouri
tonight. Heavy freezing rain/sleet are possible.

DISCUSSION...A strong upper-level trough is moving onto the Plains
this evening and a strengthening low-level jet is increasing
warm-air advection above a cold air mass across Kansas/Oklahoma. A
couple of elevated multi-cellular convective clusters are moving
along the northern edge of the low-level jet/warm-air advection.
Mid-level lapse rates are steepening as cold air aloft spreads
eastward, which will increase coverage of storms/showers in the next
couple of hours across portions of northern Oklahoma,
southern/eastern Kansas, and western Missouri. The warm-nose should
remain in place tonight within the MCD area at 850-700 mb with below
freezing surface temperatures resulting in freezing rain and sleet.
MUCAPE of 250-1000 J/kg and mixed-phase clouds should result in CG
lightning and could produce locally heavy freezing rain/sleet.
Generally, precipitation rates will be 0.05-0.15" per hour with
widespread ice accumulation expected. In areas with stronger surface
winds, ice accretion will be more efficient and sleet accumulation
is also possible within convective bands/showers.

..Nauslar/Edwards.. 02/07/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...OAX...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...

LAT...LON 36889576 36729640 36559698 36309778 36239828 36179871
36259904 36469929 36779937 37079938 37289936 37759901
38729772 39409672 39959585 40029518 39979472 39739418
39399362 39059332 38739318 38399326 38039369 37979382
37619430 37329469 37129505 37029535 36889576



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