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ACUS11 KWNS 052356
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 052356
INZ000-ILZ000-WIZ000-060600-

Mesoscale Discussion 0070
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0556 PM CST Tue Feb 05 2019

Areas affected...Southern Wisconsin and Northern Illinois

Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation

Valid 052356Z - 060600Z

SUMMARY...Freezing rain and sleet are expected to continue moving
northeast across southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois through
the evening. Some snow may mix in to parts of southern Wisconsin.

DISCUSSION...Winter mixed precipitation will continue across
portions of the Upper Midwest and western Great Lakes region through
the evening. Precipitation is moving northeast with a region of lift
stretching southwest to northeast from northern Missouri into
northern Michigan. Dual-pol radar data from KDVN, KMKX, and KLOT
indicate a mix between freezing rain and sleet with a mix/range of
correlation coefficient values and bright banding across northern Illinois/southern Wisconsin. Warm air advection with isentropic
up-glide is fueling the winter mixed precipitation that will be
moderate to heavy at times. The height of the warm nose varies from
750 mb to 850 mb from north to south, which explains the gradient of
freezing rain to sleet/snow mix from northern Illinois to southern
Wisconsin. Additionally, steepening mid-level lapse rates and
stronger forcing/lift associated with an upper-level shortwave
trough is likely to produce lightning and CG lightning has already
been observed in eastern Iowa/northwest Illinois.

..Nauslar/Edwards.. 02/05/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...

LAT...LON 41598741 41118794 40818860 40678905 41028939 41888963
42738951 43088938 43308937 43508904 43488860 43458841
43448777 43328753 43088737 42788721 42448714 42188718
41888730 41598741



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