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ACUS11 KWNS 312339
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 312339
NYZ000-010445-

Mesoscale Discussion 0064
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0539 PM CST Thu Jan 31 2019

Areas affected...Tug Hill Plateau/vicinity

Concerning...Heavy snow

Valid 312339Z - 010445Z

SUMMARY...Heavy lake effect snow should continue this evening across
portions of northwest New York in the lee of Lake Ontario. Snowfall
rates of 1-3" per hour are expected.

DISCUSSION...A band of heavy lake effect snow continues across
portions of northwest New York in the lee of Lake Ontario. According
to the KTYX radar, southern/central Jefferson, northern Oswego, and northern/central Lewis counties are currently under this band with a
7.1 inch snowfall report recorded at 21:30 UTC near Watertown in a
two-hour period. Surface winds should remain favorable for a large
fetch across the lake with latest high-resolution guidance showing a
southward shift during the next few hours. Building heights aloft
and veering winds with height in the low-levels will begin to limit
the depth of the convection from west to east across Lake Ontario
later this evening. However, this will be a gradual process and a
band of heavy snow is expected to continue through the evening
before dissipating tonight.

The forecast southward shift of the lake effect band would impact
Oswego/Lewis counties and into northern Oneida county with snowfall
rates of 1-3 inches per hour expected. Winds should remain gusty
leading to hazardous travel conditions with blowing/drifting snow in
addition to the heavy snowfall.

..Nauslar/Thompson.. 01/31/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...

LAT...LON 44087644 44157621 44227581 44247544 44217524 44087497
43797496 43617502 43507510 43467540 43427572 43437598
43437613 43467627 43517639 43627639 43657632 43787635
43927641 44087644



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