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ACUS11 KWNS 301610
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301610
NYZ000-MAZ000-CTZ000-VTZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-302015-

Mesoscale Discussion 0061
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1010 AM CST Wed Jan 30 2019

Areas affected...Eastern Pennsylvania into southeastern New
York...New Jersey and adjacent portions of the northern Mid Atlantic
and southern New England

Concerning...Heavy snow

Valid 301610Z - 302015Z

SUMMARY...A brief burst of heavy snow, strong wind gusts and reduced visibilities may accompany the passage of a cold front this
afternoon, perhaps affecting much of the Greater New York City
metropolitan area during the 2-4 PM EST time frame.

DISCUSSION...The leading edge of stronger lower tropospheric cooling
(centered around 850 mb...where temps falling from roughly -15 to
-30C), now surging east of the Allegheny Mountains, is forecast to
continue eastward into western New England and the northern Mid
Atlantic region through 20-22Z. Model forecast soundings suggest
that is being accompanied by increasing boundary layer
destabilization supportive of deepening convective development, with
tops likely to approach 10,000+ feet, particularly across parts of
eastern Pennsylvania and central/northern New Jersey into
southeastern New York late this afternoon.

Frontogenetic forcing appears to be supporting a narrow, but
sustained, evolving band of convection. This is likely being aided
by lift within the exit region of a 110-130 kt cyclonic 500 mb jet
streak forecast to nose across the northern Mid Atlantic, lower
Hudson Valley, and southern New England by late this afternoon.

Given the cold thermodynamic profiles, including a layer supportive
of large dendritic ice crystal growth, guidance is suggestive that
the convection may be accompanied by a burst of heavy snow rates
around or in excess of 1 inch per hour. It appears this may last
only 15 to 30 minutes at any one location, but it may be accompanied
by fairly strong surface wind gusts in excess of 30 kts, and sharply
reduced visibilities.

..Kerr.. 01/30/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...

LAT...LON 40187685 41577615 42637568 43557345 42817280 42297262
41427249 40227382 39647578 39647711 40187685



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