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ACUS11 KWNS 030206
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 030205
MOZ000-TNZ000-ARZ000-030300-

Mesoscale Discussion 0630
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0905 PM CDT Sat Jun 02 2018

Areas affected...central through northern Arkansas through southeast
Missouri

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 151...

Valid 030205Z - 030300Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 151
continues.

SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorm watch 151 is scheduled to expire at
03Z. Widely scattered storms over Arkansas will continue southeast
during the next couple hours. Overall trend should be for storms to
gradually weaken. However, a couple of storms could pose some risk
for isolated hail and strong to damaging wind during the next couple
of hours. Another WW issuance is not expected, but a portion of WW
151 could be locally extended in time for an hour or two beyond 03Z
if needed.

DISCUSSION...Widely scattered storms continue southeast through AR
this evening. Overall trend has been for storms to become less
organized. The 00Z RAOB from Little Rock showed an inversion between
850-700 mb associated with warm air at the base of an elevated mixed
layer. This profile should support a substantial increase in
convective inhibition with respect to surface-based parcels as the
boundary layer cools. This in conjunction with weak forcing aloft
and lack of a low-level jet suggest storms should continue a
longer-term weakening trend, though a modest severe threat may
persist during the next couple of hours especially with storm
cluster moving through northeast AR.

..Dial.. 06/03/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LZK...

LAT...LON 35099347 35599251 36099153 36509072 36418994 36018978
35099026 34469134 34459346 35099347



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