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ACUS11 KWNS 022331
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 022331
MOZ000-ARZ000-030100-

Mesoscale Discussion 0628
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0631 PM CDT Sat Jun 02 2018

Areas affected...central through northern Arkansas into southern
Missouri

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 151...

Valid 022331Z - 030100Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 151
continues.

SUMMARY...Strong to severe storms will continue to develop southeast
through southeast Missouri and northern through central Arkansas
during the next couple hours. While a strong storm or two are moving
into the extreme southern part of St Louis county warning area, the
areal coverage of of any severe storms should remain too limited for
any additional WW issuance.

DISCUSSION...An expansive outflow boundary extends from northern MS
through northeast AR into southeast MO where it intersects a cold
front that stretches farther southwest into northwest AR. A
reservoir of strong instability (2500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE) resides in
warm sector across southern MO into AR. Storms should continue
developing southeast along the cold front as well as in association
with pre-frontal outflow boundaries. While low-level hodographs are
rather small, veering winds through 0-3 km beneath 30-35 kt flow
aloft is resulting in effective bulk shear up to 40 kt, sufficient
for some supercell structure. However, tendency has been for some of
the storms to congeal into clusters, especially over southern MO
near the outflow boundary/cold front intersection. While storms will
likely persist and develop southeast next 2-3 hours, posing a risk
for mainly large hail and damaging wind, weak forcing aloft, lack of
a low-level jet and increasing convective inhibition with onset of
nocturnal cooling lowers confidence in a longer-term, more robust
severe threat.

..Dial.. 06/02/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...

LAT...LON 37199181 37319080 37058939 35809003 34409086 34309206
34359356 34749402 36099322 36829249 37199181



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