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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0049

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thursday, January 24, 2019 01:01:16
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS11 KWNS 240001
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 240000
    MEZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-240400-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0049
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0600 PM CST Wed Jan 23 2019

    Areas affected...Portions of northeast New York...central and
    northern Vermont...central and northern New Hampshire...extreme
    western Maine

    Concerning...Freezing rain

    Valid 240000Z - 240400Z

    SUMMARY...Freezing rain remains likely for much of the area for the
    next few hours, with accumulations rates of up to 0.05 in/3 hrs
    possible.

    DISCUSSION...A mid-level shortwave trough and associated surface
    cyclone will traverse the area this evening, providing deep-layer
    ascent. Simultaneously, a conveyor belt of deep moisture and
    associated precipitation will continue to overspread the region,
    with sfc-700 mb WAA slowly moistening/warming temperatures
    throughout the lower troposphere. While surface/low-level
    tropospheric temperatures for much of the area will eventually rise
    above the freezing mark, temperatures currently remain well below
    freezing, especially across northern portions of Vermont and New
    Hampshire. With 10+ F T/Td spreads noted across the area,
    evaporative cooling will promote wet-bulb temperatures to persist
    below 0C for at least the next 2-4 hours, fostering a short-term
    freezing rain threat to continue.

    RAP point forecast soundings and ensemble model guidance suggest
    that the freezing rain threat will likely continue to at least
    0400Z, where a transition to all rain is expected.

    ..Squitieri.. 01/24/2019

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...GYX...BTV...ALY...

    LAT...LON 43277225 43207299 43247369 43697420 44517398 44987359
    44997152 44897098 44437087 43467193 43277225



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