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ACUS11 KWNS 232341
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 232340
ALZ000-FLZ000-240145-

Mesoscale Discussion 0048
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0540 PM CST Wed Jan 23 2019

Areas affected...Portions of the western FL Panhandle and southern
AL

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 232340Z - 240145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated strong to damaging wind gust and perhaps a
brief tornado cannot be ruled out this evening. Watch issuance is
unlikely.

DISCUSSION...23Z surface observations and recent radar imagery show thunderstorms ongoing along a cold front extending from east-central
AL southwestward to the western FL Panhandle. The low-level airmass
is not overly moist to the east of the ongoing convection, with
surface dewpoints generally in the 62-67F range. Showers and
low-topped thunderstorms have developed ahead of the front across
parts of the western FL Panhandle and southeastern AL in a low-level
warm air advection regime. This has limited diurnal heating across
this region, and both low- and mid-level lapse rates remain poor.
Accordingly, 23Z mesoanalysis estimates that instability is weak,
with MLCAPE ranging from 250-500 J/kg. Still, a 50-60 kt
south-southwesterly low-level jet and veering low-level wind profile
per KEVX VWP is contributing to very strong low-level shear. Given
the linear nature of the thunderstorms along the front, an isolated
strong to damaging wind gust could occur. A brief QLCS tornado also
cannot be ruled out with effective SRH of 250-450 m2/s2 present. The
lack of greater low-level moisture and related instability will
likely limit the overall severe threat, and watch issuance appears
unlikely this evening as the line moves eastward.

..Gleason/Edwards.. 01/23/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...

LAT...LON 30278758 30758737 31618658 31588605 31158561 30058569
30328627 30348675 30258732 30278758



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