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ACUS11 KWNS 191104
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191104
MSZ000-LAZ000-191300-

Mesoscale Discussion 0026
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0504 AM CST Sat Jan 19 2019

Areas affected...Central and southern MS and parts of adjacent LA
Parishes

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 191104Z - 191300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...A watch may be needed through this morning for much of
central and southern Mississippi, and adjacent parts of Louisiana
for storms producing primarily a severe wind threat. However, a
tornado threat cannot be ruled out.

DISCUSSION...Periodic increases in storm intensities and
organization have occurred with the band of storms extending from
central MS to east-central LA. Meanwhile, radar imagery indicated a
nearly solid band of storms extending from eastern AR through
northeast to southwest LA, with this activity moving east at close
to 40 kt. Although warm sector has only gradually moistened
overnight into central and southern MS with MUCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg,
strong deep-layer and low-level shear suggests additional organized
storms will be possible. The ongoing positively tilted orientation
of the southern Plains trough is expected to become somewhat more
neutrally oriented this morning as the trough advances toward the
lower Mississippi Valley. Forcing for ascent with this trough
combined with some additional boundary-layer moistening suggests
even modest destabilization could prove favorable for an organized
severe threat, given the strength of the available shear. Low-level
hodograph curvature across the warm sector per area VADs suggests a
continued potential for rotating updrafts, with an attendant tornado
threat, while damaging winds will be possible as well.

..Peters/Guyer.. 01/19/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...

LAT...LON 31399196 32719077 33088947 32868848 31888847 31238865
30888944 30699042 30589193 30689251 31399196



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