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ACUS11 KWNS 130855
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 130854
MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-131300-

Mesoscale Discussion 0019
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0254 AM CST Sun Jan 13 2019

Areas affected...Central Virginia and Maryland...including southern
portions of the Washington D.C./Baltimore metro area

Concerning...Heavy snow

Valid 130854Z - 131300Z

SUMMARY...Moderate to heavy snow now developing across parts of
central Virginia and Maryland is expected to persist through mid to
late morning, with rates (around or in excess of 1 inch per hour)
likely maximizing in the 6-10 AM EST time frame.

DISCUSSION...A broadly cyclonic 50-70+ kt 500 mb jet streak
continues to gradually develop eastward across the northern Gulf
Coast states, with its exit region now beginning to nose to the lee
of the southern Appalachians, toward the southern Mid Atlantic coast
through mid to late morning. It appears an associated broad area of
strong upward vertical motion will include a period of strengthening lower/mid-tropospheric frontogenesis across Virginia and adjacent
portions of the Mid Atlantic.

Across central Virginia into adjacent portions of central Maryland,
where temperature profiles are expected to remain entirely below
freezing, models indicate that lift may begin to become maximized
within the favorable mixed-phase layer for dendritic ice crystal
growth by daybreak, and continue through mid to late morning. Aided
by relatively high precipitable water content (up to around .70
inches), one or more bands of heavy snow, at rates around or in
excess of 1 inch per hour, appear possible. Forecast soundings
suggest that this may persist for a 3-4 hour period at any
particular location, generally in a narrow corridor from the
vicinity of the Blue Ridge, north of Roanoke VA, east/northeastward
through southern portions of the Greater Washington D.C./Baltimore
Metropolitan Area.

..Kerr.. 01/13/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RNK...

LAT...LON 38287888 38517861 38657841 38977644 38497624 37937809
37697891 37767939 38087930 38287888



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