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ACUS11 KWNS 301740
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301740
MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-302015-

Mesoscale Discussion 0952
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1240 PM CDT Sat Jun 30 2018

Areas affected...Eastern Nebraska...Iowa...Southern Minnesota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 301740Z - 302015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...A severe threat will continue developing across northwest
Iowa over the couple of hours. The threat is expected to also
increase across southern Minnesota and in eastern Nebraska.
Initially, wind damage and isolated large hail will be the primary
threats. However, a tornado threat will also be possible as cells
mature later this afternoon. Weather watch issuance will likely be
needed across the region.

DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows a cold front moving southeastward across southern Minnesota, northwest Iowa and eastern
Nebraska. A moist airmass is in place near to the southeast of the
front with surface dewpoints mostly in the mid to upper 70s F. This
is resulting in moderate to strong instability (MLCAPE 2000 to 3000
J/kg) across the mid Missouri and upper Mississippi Valley. In
addition, the northwestern edge of the warm sector is overlapped
with moderate deep-layer shear. Forecast soundings at Omaha this
afternoon have 0-6 km shear in the 45 to 50 kt range suggesting the
environment will support supercells. The instability combined with
steep lapse rates will make isolated large hail possible with
supercells. As a weak capping inversion weakens and low-level lapse
rates steepen further over the next few hours, a wind damage threat
will be possible with short multicell line segments. Low-level shear
is also forecast to increase during the late afternoon suggesting a
tornado threat may develop as well.

..Broyles/Hart.. 06/30/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...GID...

LAT...LON 43059219 42479357 41819542 40759700 40389785 40619856
41139865 42169772 42919656 43709506 44319288 44259225
44029195 43649188 43059219



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