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ACUS11 KWNS 300635
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 300635
NEZ000-300800-

Mesoscale Discussion 0950
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0135 AM CDT Sat Jun 30 2018

Areas affected...NE Panhandle into parts of central and northern NE

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 243...

Valid 300635Z - 300800Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 243
continues.

SUMMARY...Sporadic stronger elevated storms will be capable of
producing hail around or exceeding 1 inch diameter through the
overnight from the Nebraska Panhandle into parts of central and
northern Nebraska. Although this severe threat exists, it is
expected to be marginal across the discussion area, allowing WW 243
to expire at 07Z and not warrant the need for a new watch at this
time.

DISCUSSION...Trends in mosaic radar imagery showed an increase in
thunderstorm coverage and intensity extending from extreme southeast
WY through the southern NE Panhandle into central and north-central
NE. This activity was located north of a surface boundary, which
extended from central MN, northwest IA, and northeast NE through
southern NE to northeast CO. These storms were also located near
and north of 925-mb/850-mb thermal boundaries, with the primary
forcing mechanism being isentropic ascent/warm advection per a
strong low-level jet, as satellite imagery suggests NE is located
between larger scale troughs. The presence of very steep midlevel
lapse rates per 00z LBF sounding and residual moderate MUCAPE
suggest sustained storms will be capable of producing hail, at times
around or greater than 1 inch diameter. A new watch is not
anticipated at this time, as overall coverage of stronger storms is
low, and short-term guidance suggests these overnight storms will
diminish later this morning.

..Peters/Guyer.. 06/30/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF...CYS...

LAT...LON 41670391 42180207 42469976 42659849 42759796 42429766
42039794 41739919 41530079 41420173 41300263 41150375
41670391



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