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ACUS11 KWNS 010908
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 010907
MEZ000-011500-

Mesoscale Discussion 0002
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0307 AM CST Tue Jan 01 2019

Areas affected...Portions of northern ME

Concerning...Heavy snow

Valid 010907Z - 011500Z

SUMMARY...Heavy snowfall, with rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour, will
occur through at least 15Z (10 AM EST).

DISCUSSION...A shortwave trough over the lower Great Lakes will
continue eastward along the international border this morning.
Strong large-scale ascent ahead of this feature has encouraged a
broad area of precipitation from northern NY into much of New
England. Light to moderate snow is falling at 09Z across northern ME
per surface observations and recent radar imagery as the low levels
saturate. Pronounced low-level warm air advection will continue
across northern ME through the morning in association with a 50-55+
kt southerly LLJ. But, a shallow/cold airmass will likely remain in
place across this region. Saturation of the low levels will also
cool surface air temperatures to the wetbulb temperature, which
should generally remain at/below freezing. Therefore, the dominant precipitation type that will fall across most of northern ME will
likely be snow. Saturation and strong lift through the dendritic
growth zone will support heavy snowfall rates of 1-2 inches per hour
through at least 15Z (10 AM EST). There may be some potential for a
transition to sleet and eventually freezing rain with southward
extent as the 950-850 mb layer slowly approaches 0C around 12-15Z
and partial melting/refreezing of hydrometeors occurs. The
northeastward movement of the shortwave trough and attendant surface
low into the Canadian Maritimes will lead to gradually lessening
snowfall rates after 15Z.

..Gleason.. 01/01/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...

LAT...LON 46146769 45806834 45616916 45526991 45797046 46267035
46457016 46707008 47516930 47496901 47366897 47266889
47426839 47416818 47076771 46146769



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