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ACUS11 KWNS 281825
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281824
NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-282030-

Mesoscale Discussion 1742
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1224 PM CST Fri Dec 28 2018

Areas affected...Portions of far eastern GA...SC...and far
south-central NC

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 281824Z - 282030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated strong/gusty winds capable of producing mainly
tree damage will be possible this afternoon. Watch issuance is not
expected.

DISCUSSION...A thin, broken line of convection over upstate SC at
1815Z will move eastward into central SC and far south-central NC
this afternoon. The airmass ahead of this line has become weakly
unstable owing to modest diurnal heating and some steepening of
near-surface lapse rates, with MLCAPE generally in the 500-1000 J/kg
range. The movement of small clusters embedded within this line
somewhat orthogonal to mid-level 50-60 kt southwesterly flow could
encourage isolated strong/gusty downdraft winds to reach the surface
through the afternoon. Radar data from KCAE indicates this
potential, with 40-50 kt inbound velocities recently noted west of
Columbia, SC. The VWP from KCAE shows low-level winds generally
veered to southwesterly, but there is around 30-35 kt of speed shear
in the 0-1 km layer that could possibly support weak low-level
rotation within the convective line. Accordingly, a brief tornado
cannot be completely ruled out. Still, the overall marginal
thermodynamic environment (with poor mid-level lapse rates) will
probably limit a greater severe threat, and watch issuance is not
expected at this time.

..Gleason/Goss.. 12/28/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...

LAT...LON 33508217 34148164 34958098 35188061 35318002 35207961
35007935 34367970 33668025 33128099 32848153 33108215
33508217



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