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ACUS11 KWNS 270817
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 270816
NEZ000-KSZ000-OKZ000-271415-

Mesoscale Discussion 1733
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0216 AM CST Thu Dec 27 2018

Areas affected...portions of western Kansas and south-central
Nebraska.

Concerning...Heavy snow

Valid 270816Z - 271415Z

SUMMARY...Coverage and intensity of snow is expected to increase
over the discussion area through sunrise, with rates commonly 1-2
inches per hour and locally higher. Sporadic blizzard conditions
also are possible.

DISCUSSION...Surface mesoanalysis shows a well-defined frontal-wave
cyclone with a low near the OK/KS border, south of DDC. This low is
forecast to migrate/re-develop northeastward along a cold front and
across central/northern Kansas, reaching southeastern NE by 14Z.
That will occur in response to the northeastward ejection of a
strong mid/upper-level shortwave trough and embedded vorticity
max/cyclone now evident in moisture-channel imagery over the
northwestern TX Panhandle. The associated deep-layer forcings --
both in terms of elevated frontogenetic ascent and DCVA/cooling
aloft -- will shift northeastward over the cold sector in step with
the motion of the deep-layer cyclone. This will help to maintain or
increase precip over the next few hours across the OK Panhandle and
through at least dawn over western KS, and intensify existing precip
areas after about 09Z in southern NE.

Favorably strong UVV is evident in planar progs throughout the
dendritic-growth zones, likewise shifting northeastward across the
discussion area. Time series of forecast soundings accordingly show deep-columnar cooling of any remaining superfreezing layers to below
freezing, with dynamically driven/large-scale cooling throughout the lower/middle troposphere and post-frontal cold advection in the
boundary layer. In addition, tight pressure/height gradients and
vertical turbulent mixing will boost already near-blizzard
gradient-wind conditions locally.

..Edwards.. 12/27/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...AMA...

LAT...LON 40569791 39829849 38909927 38139974 37430033 36660063
36540128 36870188 38070191 38990144 40200047 40919970
41109927 41409836 40569791



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