• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1730

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thursday, December 27, 2018 03:40:37
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    ACUS11 KWNS 270240
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 270240
    270445-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1730
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0840 PM CST Wed Dec 26 2018

    Areas affected...Portions of South Central Texas

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 444...

    Valid 270240Z - 270445Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 444 continues.

    SUMMARY...A threat for all severe hazards continues in WW 444.
    Storms will be moving into an area of greater instability and wind
    fields that are supportive of low-level rotation. With time, storms
    may grow upscale into a line where embedded rotation will accompany
    a more widespread severe wind gust threat.

    DISCUSSION...A line of storms from Kerr County Texas to near
    Laughlin AFB has continued to progress eastward. The 00Z DRT
    sounding shows 70+ kts of effective bulk shear with mid-level lapse
    rates of over 8 C/km. Storms on the northern end of the line have
    tended to congeal owing to deep-layer shear parallel to the
    initiating dryline. However, two cells near Laughlin AFB have been
    able to remain relatively discrete. A relative maxima in instability
    exists to the east of these storms with around 2500 J/kg in the
    objective analysis fields. Though the most enlarged low-level
    hodographs will exist to the northeast of WW 444, where the
    low-level jet will be strongest, KDFX and KEWX VAD data support
    150-200 m2/s2 SRH. Tornadoes will be possible with these storms,
    particularly if any can remain discrete as they encounter better
    low-level moisture. Large hail is also possible given the lapse
    rates. With time, storms may grow upscale, but embedded rotation
    will still remain possible along with a more widespread severe wind
    gust threat.

    ..Wendt.. 12/27/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...



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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thursday, December 27, 2018 03:52:05
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

    ------------=_1545879129-22122-9384
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    ACUS11 KWNS 270252
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 270251
    TXZ000-270445-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1730
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0851 PM CST Wed Dec 26 2018

    Areas affected...Portions of South Central Texas

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 444...

    Valid 270251Z - 270445Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 444 continues.

    SUMMARY...A threat for all severe hazards continues in WW 444.
    Storms will be moving into an area of greater instability and wind
    fields that are supportive of low-level rotation. With time, storms
    may grow upscale into a line where embedded rotation will accompany
    a more widespread severe wind gust threat.

    DISCUSSION...A line of storms from Kerr County Texas to near
    Laughlin AFB has continued to progress eastward. The 00Z DRT
    sounding shows 70+ kts of effective bulk shear with mid-level lapse
    rates of over 8 C/km. Storms on the northern end of the line have
    tended to congeal owing to deep-layer shear parallel to the
    initiating dryline. However, two cells near Laughlin AFB have been
    able to remain relatively discrete. A relative maxima in instability
    exists to the east of these storms with around 2500 J/kg in the
    objective analysis fields. Though the most enlarged low-level
    hodographs will exist to the northeast of WW 444, where the
    low-level jet will be strongest, KDFX and KEWX VAD data support
    150-200 m2/s2 SRH. Tornadoes will be possible with these storms,
    particularly if any can remain discrete as they encounter better
    low-level moisture. Large hail is also possible given the lapse
    rates. With time, storms may grow upscale, but embedded rotation
    will still remain possible along with a more widespread severe wind
    gust threat.

    ..Wendt.. 12/27/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...SJT...

    LAT...LON 28619833 28640011 29120073 29150076 29170076 29170077
    29220080 29230080 30290069 30509930 30629805 30629801
    30629795 30559695 30549693 30549691 30299663 30299663
    29379723 29119761 28619833 28619833



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