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ACUS11 KWNS 212117
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 212116
PAZ000-MDZ000-DCZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-212215-

Mesoscale Discussion 1723
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0316 PM CST Fri Dec 21 2018

Areas affected...Washington DC area northward into north-central
Pennsylvania

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 212116Z - 212215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A threat for brief, mostly sub-severe wind gusts will
persist with storms migrating across the region over the next couple
of hours or so. A WW issuance is not anticipated for this activity.

DISCUSSION...Recent radar/satellite imagery and lightning data
indicate increasing convective coverage and intensity recently -
particularly within a couple of linear bands over central Maryland
and adjacent areas of Virginia. A gust to 41 knots was recently
reported near Gaithersburg, MD within the past half hour. These
storms remain in a strongly sheared environment on the cyclonic side
of 80-90 kt mid-level flow overspreading the area. Weak instability
persists, however, owing to mid/upper 50s F surface dewpoints and
modest mid-level lapse rates. Still, organized updrafts within this
region may result in a few wind gusts approaching but remaining
below severe thresholds and may cause isolated tree/power line
damage over the next couple of hours. Brief updraft rotation may
also not be completely ruled out especially within individual cells
as backed low-level flow is contributing to 250-300 m2/s2
storm-relative helicity.

Given the brevity/marginality of the severe threat, a WW issuance is
not anticipated for this activity.

..Cook.. 12/21/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...

LAT...LON 41847743 41837710 41487683 40357690 39427681 38977679
38727691 38697726 39217778 39397787 39737807 40397807
40857803 40977802 41847743



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