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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1721

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Friday, December 21, 2018 03:00:02
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS11 KWNS 210159
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 210159
    NCZ000-210400-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1721
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0759 PM CST Thu Dec 20 2018

    Areas affected...Eastern North Carolina

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

    Valid 210159Z - 210400Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Near surface stability should hinder the potential for
    tornadoes even with relatively strong low-level wind fields in
    place. A strong/severe wind gust will still be possible with the
    strongest convective activity. A WW is not anticipated.

    DISCUSSION...Over the past hour, trends in VWP hodographs from KLTX
    have shown a decrease in low-level SRH. As the core of the 850 mb
    low-level jet continues to move to the north/northeast, this trend
    should continue. Though objective mesoanalysis shows effective SRH
    values still in the 200-400 m2/s2 range, the 00Z MHX sounding shows
    a stable layer near the surface that should limit the overall
    potential for tornadoes. Furthermore, surface analysis has shown
    dewpoints dropping over the last 2 hours near the coast. The main
    threat with any ongoing convection will be limited to strong wind
    gusts, given the remaining 35-50 kt flow in the lowest 2 km of the
    troposphere. Trends will continue to be monitored, but a WW is not
    anticipated.

    ..Wendt/Grams.. 12/21/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MHX...ILM...

    LAT...LON 33557782 33847781 34427762 34937744 35477715 35997628
    35977542 35367498 34257641 33687730 33447766 33557782



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