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ACUS11 KWNS 202113
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 202112
NCZ000-SCZ000-202345-

Mesoscale Discussion 1719
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0312 PM CST Thu Dec 20 2018

Areas affected...portions of coastal South and North Carolina

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 202112Z - 202345Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms offshore will begin to approach the coastal
Carolinas by this evening with the potential for strong wind gusts
and a tornado or two. Trends are being monitored for the
possibility of a watch by 00Z/7 pm EST.

DISCUSSION...Latest mesoanalysis shows a warm front extending from
southeast VA southwest across central SC. Regional radar composite
shows widespread rain across the discussion area, with a north-south
line of thunderstorms offshore of the NC/SC coast. Latest high-res
guidance indicates these thunderstorms will approach the coast
through this evening, with storms continuing to move north/northeast
across eastern NC through the late evening hours.

Largely unidirectional winds throughout the lower-mid troposphere
will increase significantly in speeds through this evening,
resulting in southerly deep-layer shear values of 50-65 kts.
Concurrently, weak buoyancy will develop inland as slightly higher
theta-e air advects northward. Thunderstorms moving inland and over
adjacent coastal waters will be oriented in line segments posing a
risk for damaging winds. Very strong low-level SRH in excess of 300
m2/s2 will support storm-scale rotation and the possibility for a
tornado or two.

Radar and environmental trends will continue to be monitored for the possibility of a watch by early evening.

..Bunting/Hart.. 12/20/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...

LAT...LON 32367969 32878009 33587970 34687876 35227783 35877673
35957599 35917526 35307513 34007708 33247842 32367969



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