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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1717

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thursday, December 20, 2018 16:49:28
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    ACUS11 KWNS 201549
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 201549
    FLZ000-201745-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1717
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0949 AM CST Thu Dec 20 2018

    Areas affected...central Florida

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 439...

    Valid 201549Z - 201745Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 439 continues.

    SUMMARY...Severe storms including supercells should remain focused
    along an outflow boundary, with tornadoes and damaging wind gusts
    possible.

    DISCUSSION...Strong southerly flow in a warm advection regime is
    currently aiding lift as well as enhancing shear profiles across FL
    where storms are currently situated southwest-northeast across
    central FL. While northern portions of this line continue to shift
    east, southwestern parts are becoming stationary and/or lifting
    north. Meanwhile, upstream heating and moisture advection persists
    with MLCAPE in excess of 1200 J/kg.

    Through afternoon, strong low-level wind fields will persist while
    instability gradually increases. A corridor of tornado or damaging
    wind threat will likely consolidate near the aforementioned
    boundary, with a few supercells possible. Further, a cold front is
    consolidated just off the west coast, and will further aid lift and
    enhance storm coverage later today. Where this front intersects the
    other may be a favored location for tornado potential.

    ..Jewell/Hart.. 12/20/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...

    LAT...LON 28168038 27428042 26518108 26228171 26448212 26768241
    27078266 27538266 27908234 28148182 28418140 28968120
    29298109 29248079 28528049 28168038



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