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ACUS11 KWNS 142350
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 142350
FLZ000-150145-

Mesoscale Discussion 1711
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0550 PM CST Fri Dec 14 2018

Areas affected...West-central Florida

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 438...

Valid 142350Z - 150145Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 438
continues.

SUMMARY...Severe risk continues for locally damaging winds gusts and
perhaps a tornado across portions of west-central Florida within
WW438.

DISCUSSION...The line of storms west of the Florida Peninsula
continue to move slowly eastward with most of the line still
offshore. Shear values (effective bulk shear of 45-60 knots) and
hodographs with 200-300 m2/s2 0-1 km storm relative helicity per mesoanalysis/RAP soundings remain supportive of embedded supercells
and bowing segments. However, these features have yet to materialize
within the line of storms. Subtle height falls aloft have helped
maintain marginal buoyancy (500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE) across the area
even with the loss of insolation. As the storms continue slowly
moving eastward, locally damaging wind gusts and a brief tornado
remain possible through 03z across WW438.

..Nauslar/Edwards.. 12/14/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...

LAT...LON 28338305 28708231 29078147 28748144 27888146 27628146
27298219 26998279 26888308 27588309 28338305



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