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ACUS11 KWNS 162315
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 162314
SDZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-170045-

Mesoscale Discussion 0756
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0614 PM CDT Sat Jun 16 2018

Areas affected...Southwest/central South Dakota...Northwest Nebraska
and the Nebraska Panhandle...far southeast Wyoming

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 181...

Valid 162314Z - 170045Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 181
continues.

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to continue to increase in
coverage and intensity across WW 181 this evening. The threat for
large hail and severe wind gusts remains across the entire watch
area.

DISCUSSION...Latest satellite imagery and radar/lightning data show thunderstorms increasing in coverage over the last hour or so
along/near a frontal boundary arcing from near Valentine to Sidney
Nebraska. Thus far, storms have remained sub-severe with the
convection generally remaining slightly elevated or high-based.
Latest surface analysis and mesoanalysis suggests a reservoir of
greater low-level moisture resides across portions of south-central
South Dakota, with surface dew points in the low 70s contributing to
MLCAPE greater than 2500 J/kg. If storms can become rooted within
the boundary layer, then they should continue to increase in
intensity -- especially as they shift northward into a more
favorable environment. If this occurs, then effective bulk shear
around 40-50 knots will promote rotating updrafts with the potential
for large hail and severe wind gusts with the strongest storms.
Coverage will also increase through time, with numerous strong
storms expected over the area into the evening.

..Elliott.. 06/16/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...LBF...UNR...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON 42170386 45440091 45459872 44259876 41000210 40980410
41000471 41130483 42170386



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