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ACUS11 KWNS 010017
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 010017
ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-010115-

Mesoscale Discussion 1669
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0617 PM CST Fri Nov 30 2018

Areas affected...Northeast TX...Far southeast OK...Most of AR...Northwest/north-central LA

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely

Valid 010017Z - 010115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Threat for severe storms capable of tornadoes continues to
gradually increase. A Tornado Watch will be needed soon.

DISCUSSION...Warm advection continues to be the primary forcing for
ascent, evidenced by linear/arching reflectivity structure and
fairly transient updrafts. However, stronger forcing for ascent is
quickly approaching as a potent shortwave trough moves into the
southern Plains. Storm in Franklin county AR has recently shown
better organization, shedding a well-developed left-split and
developing a strong updraft during the past half hour. With the
increased forcing for ascent, storm coverage is expected to
increase. The thermodynamic environment is fairly marginal as shown
by the deep but only weakly unstable layer from the surface up to
700 mb on the 00Z SHV sounding. Even so, instability is expected to
gradually increase as mid-level temperatures cool within the
approaching shortwave. In contrast to the thermodynamics, the
kinematics are already favorable for rotating storms with an
increasing low-level jet expected to result in even stronger
low-level shear profiles. Primary threat will be tornadoes, one or
two of which could be strong. Damaging wind gusts are also possible.
Small hail cannot be completely ruled out.

..Mosier/Goss.. 12/01/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...TSA...

LAT...LON 35139462 36029394 36229247 35489054 33139165 31649321
32169541 35139462



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