• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1626

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tuesday, November 06, 2018 06:45:18
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS11 KWNS 060545
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 060544
    WVZ000-VAZ000-KYZ000-OHZ000-060745-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1626
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1144 PM CST Mon Nov 05 2018

    Areas affected...Eastern Kentucky...Far western West Virginia...far
    western Virginia

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

    Valid 060544Z - 060745Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...A few strong/severe wind gusts will be possible as a
    squall line continues to push east into eastern Kentucky/western
    West Virginia. Stable air with eastward extent should limit the
    overall severe threat. No WW is expected.

    DISCUSSION...Strong forcing from a mid-level shortwave has continued
    to sustain a north/south oriented squall line across parts of
    central Kentucky. As this line pushes east, it will encounter more
    stable air and is expected to weaken over the next hour or two.
    Nonetheless, very strong flow near-surface flow -- 40-50+ kts in the
    surface to 1 km layer per KJKL VAD -- will support a few
    strong/severe wind gusts. Given the increasingly limited buoyancy
    and eventual departure of the forcing to the northeast, the
    spatial/temporal extent of the severe threat appears too limited for
    a WW.

    ..Wendt/Edwards.. 11/06/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...RLX...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...

    LAT...LON 37388502 38178457 38578379 38468253 37838196 37178201
    36758255 36718418 36868476 37388502



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