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ACUS11 KWNS 011251
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011250
ALZ000-FLZ000-011445-

Mesoscale Discussion 1612
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0750 AM CDT Thu Nov 01 2018

Areas affected...Northwestern...central and southern AL/western FL
Panhandle

Concerning...Tornado Watch 420...

Valid 011250Z - 011445Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 420 continues.

SUMMARY...Strong/damaging wind gusts and a tornado threat continue
across valid portions of WW 420 this morning, with the potential for
these severe hazards to occur being the greatest across the southern
part of this watch.

DISCUSSION...Trends in mosaic radar imagery showed a QLCS continuing
to advance east through western quarter of AL early this morning.
Lightning data indicated a diminishing trend from north to south
since 09Z, with recent concentration of strikes located across
southwest AL where instability is the greatest. Despite the lack of
stronger buoyancy with northward extent into central and
northwestern AL, strengthening deep-layer winds fields across AL per
area VWPs will sustain strong shear and large low-level hodographs.
The severe probabilities for the tornado threat and damaging winds
will be greater across the southern part of WW 420, given closer
proximity to better buoyancy/destabilization. However, WW 420
should not be cancelled early across central AL, as the
low-CAPE/high-shear parameter space is favorable for, at least, a transient/brief tornado potential embedded in the QLCS. This threat
should diminish as convection encounters a more stable environment
with eastward extent across northeast and east-central AL.

..Peters.. 11/01/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...HUN...MOB...

LAT...LON 29818832 30418831 30788798 31508791 32278811 33248793
33898784 34738747 34768719 34038704 33688654 33118634
32958605 32508592 31998601 30988622 30058641 29818832



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