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ACUS11 KWNS 010641
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 010641
ALZ000-TNZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-010915-

Mesoscale Discussion 1610
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0141 AM CDT Thu Nov 01 2018

Areas affected...Northeast AR...far northern MS...and western TN

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 010641Z - 010915Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Locally strong wind gusts and a brief tornado or two will
be possible during the overnight to early morning hours across
northeast Arkansas, far northern Mississippi, and into western
Tennessee. Uncertainty in coverage of these severe-weather threats
may preclude watch issuance, though convective trends will be
monitored, with potential for spatial watch extension of WW 419.

DISCUSSION...Early overnight surface analyses showed an area of low
pressure located over central AR which is expected to undergo
further deepening, in response to strong height falls with the
approaching upper trough. This surface low should reach northwest
TN, near the KY border, by 12Z. Instability is much less with
northward extent across the discussion area compared to locations
farther south, though objective analyses indicated parcels are
likely surface based, given minimal inhibition. Given the strength
of deep-layer forcing for ascent spreading across this region, and
further strengthening of wind fields/shear parameters, transient
storm organization will be possible, even with scant buoyancy.
Memphis VAD continues to show very large low-level hodograph
curvature with 0-1-km SRH exceeding 500 m2/s2. The southerly
low-level winds will maintain warm sector moisture/weak instability
into much of western TN overnight. Thus, given the low CAPE/high
shear environment, consideration for spatial extension of WW 419 is
possible.

..Peters/Edwards.. 11/01/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HUN...PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON 34699104 35389060 36388950 36488850 36458810 35118807
34588820 34519036 34699104



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