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ACUS11 KWNS 062001
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 062000
TNZ000-KYZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-062230-

Mesoscale Discussion 0363
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0300 PM CDT Sun May 06 2018

Areas affected...Portions of southern MO...northern
AR...western/middle TN...and western KY

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 062000Z - 062230Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated strong/gusty winds and some hail will be possible
with thunderstorms through the early evening. Watch issuance is not
expected.

DISCUSSION...Lift associated with a compact northwesterly
upper-level jet and related weak mid-level shortwave trough over the
Ozarks has encouraged convection to develop along the MO/AR border
and into western KY as of 20Z. Strong diurnal heating ahead of this
activity has steepened low-level lapse rates, with RAP forecast
soundings indicating a very well-mixed boundary layer likely exists
up to around 750-700 mb. Downdrafts should be enhanced by this
well-mixed low-level environment, and MLCAPE up to 500 J/kg will
likely support thunderstorms through the early evening. Recent VWP
from the KSGF radar shows a veering and modestly strengthening wind
profile in the 1-6 km layer, with around 30-35 kt of resultant
effective bulk shear supporting at least some potential for updraft organization, mainly across southern MO into northern AR. Multicell
clusters should be the predominant storm mode, and they will pose an
isolated strong/gusty wind and perhaps marginally severe hail
threat. Mid-level flow weakens with eastward extent into
western/middle TN and western KY per RAP Mesoanalysis, which
suggests any severe threat across this region will likely remain
quite marginal/isolated.

..Gleason/Grams.. 05/06/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...LZK...SGF...TSA...

LAT...LON 36339455 36799460 37299439 37309390 37139300 36909193
36859052 36908919 36948870 37128801 37198734 37098691
36718667 36178678 35618796 35188939 35009030 35019143
35599357 35849414 36339455



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ACUS11 KWNS 150630
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 150630
MDZ000-VAZ000-NCZ000-150730-

Mesoscale Discussion 0363
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0130 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2019

Areas affected...Eastern Virginia and extreme southeast Maryland

Concerning...Tornado Watch 73...

Valid 150630Z - 150730Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 73 continues.

SUMMARY...An increased severe weather threat is expected for the
next 1 to 2 hours.

DISCUSSION...A line of supercells has developed in a low-level
confluence band across eastern Virginia. Storm-scale low-level
convergence has showed significant strengthening between 06Z and
0615Z from the AKQ WSR-88D. In addition, the AKQ VWP shows wind
speeds in excess of 70 knots at 1 km. While flow is mostly
unidirectional in the lowest 3 km, this extreme low-level speed
shear may be sufficient for low-level mesocyclone organization and
brief tornadic development. The maximum tornadic threat will likely
be during the next 1 to 2 hours before storms grow upscale and the
threat transitions more toward wind damage.

In addition, an area of higher dewpoints and warmer surface
temperatures have advected into the southern Delmarva Peninsula
suggesting that these supercells will likely persist into this
region around 08Z.

..Bentley.. 04/15/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...

LAT...LON 37727722 38277669 38297597 38037528 37227580 36917613
36597641 36357717 36387754 36607798 37727722



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