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ACUS11 KWNS 131856
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131856
TXZ000-132100-

Mesoscale Discussion 1576
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0156 PM CDT Sat Oct 13 2018

Areas affected...portions of central and into eastern Texas

Concerning...Tornado Watch 413...

Valid 131856Z - 132100Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 413 continues.

SUMMARY...Isolated strong/locally severe storm risk will continue
over the next few hours. Locally damaging winds, and a couple of
tornadoes, will remain the primary threat.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a band of convection --
including a few strong/locally severe storms -- extending from a
surface low just south of the DFW metroplex, and the warm front
immediately to its east, west-southwestward across central Texas to
the JCT (Junction TX) area, along the trailing cold front. Other
storms -- with occasional/weak mid-level circulation -- are
occurring within a band over the Coastal Plain, centered from
near/west of VCT (Victoria TX) to near CLL (College Station TX).

At this time, the most significant storms are occurring in a small
cluster over the Kaufman/Ellis/Navarro county area, with a couple of
low-level rotation centers evident on radar at this time. Other
cells, weaker but still potentially severe, extend both northeast,
and west-southwest a few counties.

While the low-level environment across northeast Texas remains to
the north of the surface warm front and thus remains stable, a small
area east and southeast of the watch -- within the warm sector --
could support expansion of the risk with time, beyond the bounds of
WW 413. We will continue to monitor trends, with an eye toward
potential need for a new/downstream watch over the next hour or so.

..Goss.. 10/13/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON 30599904 30809912 31379874 32099703 32609619 32379436
31759420 30739520 30439617 30299730 30599904



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